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2024 год Июнь (June;Junio;六月;يونيو)

 

Главная \ English \ IISS experts assess the Hamas–Israel war and its international implications

IISS experts assess the Hamas–Israel war and its international implications

The world reacts to the unprecedented incursion by Hamas in south Israel.

For most of 2023, a polarising internal political crisis has paralysed Israel and put the very identity of the country at stake. Then, on 7 October 2023, on almost the exact 50th anniversary of the attack that started the Yom Kippur War, Hamas launched an audacious assault into south Israel. The Israeli political establishment, military leadership and intelligence services having been consumed by domestic disarray and internal struggles and diverted to other tasks, were apparently caught again by surprise. Here, experts across the IISS assess the attack against Israel and global reactions to the outbreak of what Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said will be ‘a long and difficult war’.

Israel surprised
John Chipman

Prime Minister Netanyahu had spent much of the year on his controversial judicial reforms and management of the extreme elements in his coalition. For many Israelis, the prime minister was putting the nature of Israel’s democracy at stake by changing so radically the powers of the judiciary. He was also ceding so much to the religious right that many worried the country would slide into theocracy.

Shin Bet, or the Israeli Security Agency, has identified the polarisation of the Israeli population as a principal internal preoccupation. The domestic demands of the ultra-orthodox Jewish community were damaging to national unity, and the resentment of the secular majority of the privileges extended to the growing orthodox minority – exemption from military service and, in practice, even from work – was fraying the social cohesion on which the Israeli state had so long relied.

Many in the military leadership were concerned that these developments weakened Israel’s military preparedness. Between March and July, Israeli Air Force reservists refused to keep up their training hours, helicopter instructor pilots refused to report for duty and active reservists in the special forces refused to volunteer for service, all in protest of the country’s direction. Many began to worry that the Israel Defense Forces would lose their operational readiness, surge capacities, and, importantly, their ‘deterrent character’.

Meanwhile, the prime minister made the expansion of the Abraham Accords, by other ways and means, a first-order foreign-policy priority. The ultimate prize became the normalisation of diplomatic relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The national-security apparatus, including the leadership of the Mossad, was heavily consumed with delivering this result, which in September was being touted as a 50/50 possibility. Ironically, defining the ‘Palestinian component’ of a grand bargain with Saudi Arabia was core to these dramatic ‘expanding the circle of peace’ ambitions. That component is now back on the back burner, as will be further normalisation prospects.

For months, the twin challenges of managing internal political and religious dissent while attempting to confect a wide-ranging deal with Saudi Arabia consumed the political and national-security establishments.

It is currently unknown whether warning signs of the attack were missed or whether warnings were made but not acted upon. These are the questions that only the inevitable post-war inquiry on the intelligence picture can reliably and adequately answer.

Nevertheless, it is hard to avoid the tentative conclusion that too many eyes, looking both inwards and afar, were insufficiently focused on the balls rolling towards the southern border.

Palestinian factions

Laith Alajlouni

Hamas’s offensive has created at least a temporary sense of unity among Palestinian factions, particularly with the rival Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) in the West Bank. The PLO’s initial reaction justified the attacks and called them a ‘response’ to Israeli violations of Jerusalem’s Christian and Muslim holy sites.

Nevertheless, the PLO is likely worried about Hamas’s initial military success and surge in popularity among Palestinians. A public-opinion poll conducted September found that 53% of Palestinians support armed resistance against Israel. Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas polled badly, and in a hypothetical presidential election, most Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza said they would vote for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh over Abbas. Hamas will attempt to use its offensive, which has challenged Israel’s invincibility narrative, as evidence of the effectiveness of armed resistance compared to the PLO’s failure to achieve meaningful progress towards a Palestinian state through negotiations.

More pressingly, the PLO is at risk of losing control of the security situation in the West Bank. A harsh Israeli response in Gaza could provoke Palestinian civilians there, potentially even prompting an intifada. Hamas’s military success may also inspire other Palestinian militant groups in the West Bank, including the Arīn al-ʾUsudIslamic Jihad and the Jenin Brigades, to engage in hostilities against Israel.

Saudi–Israeli normalisation

Hasan Alhasan

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman struck an optimistic note during an interview with Fox News in September on the pace of Saudi-Israeli normalisation talks: ‘Each day, we get closer’, he said. But the eruption of the Israel-Hamas war has likely taken a Saudi-Israeli normalisation agreement off the table, at least for now. While calling for an end to the escalation, Saudi Arabia has joined Kuwait, Oman and Qatar in pinning the blame for the violence on the Israeli occupation. Despite the strategic benefit that Riyadh could gain from closer relations with the US and Israel, the domestic and regional political price it would incur for pursuing normalisation amid the ongoing conflict would be too steep.

In contrast with the Saudi position, the UAE has doubled down on relations with Israel, stating that it was ‘appalled’ by the targeting of Israeli civilians. The UAE takes a hard line against the Muslim Brotherhood and affiliate groups such as Hamas, which it views as a threat to its security.

The Arab Gulf states are likely concerned that an escalation could result in the conflict spilling over into the Gulf region. An Israeli ground invasion of Gaza could trigger Hizbullah’s involvement, prompting US intervention. In retaliation, Iran or its partner groups might target US bases in the Gulf region, widening the scale of the conflict into a regional war.

Hamas’s unexpected early military success against the Middle East’s top military power, Israel, suggests Iran’s ability to project power through its armed non-state partners in the region has reached new heights.

If Iran benefits from the emergence of a long and difficult Hamas-Israel war, rival Arab Gulf states will be forced in the long term to consider how they might constrain its ability to use armed affiliates to upend regional affairs. 

Regional implications

Emile Hokayem

The emerging war between Israel and Hamas carries potentially devastating repercussions for the region. The human, operational and strategic blow inflicted by Hamas on Israel and what it portends in terms of Israeli retaliation may well eclipse all previous escalations since the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

The crisis threatens to disrupt the fragile de-escalation process that has brought regional powers closer in recent years and prioritised economic integration and infrastructure development. The Abraham Accords were a product of such thinking, and the ongoing Saudi-Israeli talks followed that logic.

The key immediate question is whether Iran will enter the conflict, and if it does, whether it will be by choice or by being dragged in. There is good reason to believe Tehran does not want to confront Israel directly and will manoeuvre accordingly.

But there are longer-term structural questions. The emergence of Hamas as the undisputed leading Palestinian organisation will have lasting effects, as was the case with Lebanese Hizbullah in 2006. It has gained new standing and influence among many Arabs. How Hamas decides to use this capital as it faces down the Israeli military juggernaut may destabilise several governments.

There is trepidation in Cairo and Amman, where containing the Islamist group in the hope of a reassertion of the Palestinian Authority has been the policy. For Egypt, a new Israeli occupation of Gaza means an active conflict on its borders. Instability, extremism and human trafficking in the Sinai Peninsula were the top domestic-security problems of the past decade and could return. Jordanian King Abdallah has already told his interlocutors, ‘I told you so’. The Jordanians had grown unnerved with the Western and Gulf fixation on normalisation with Israel at the expense of a sustainable stabilisation of the West Bank and Gaza. A war next door could have a destabilising effect on Jordanian society, given that the majority of residents are Jordanians of Palestinian origin or Palestinian refugees. Cairo and Amman will have an interest in working together by deploying their international connections and intelligence services.

In contrast, the crisis puts Turkiye and Qatar on the front stages. Both countries have privileged relations with Hamas, hosting their leaders and media and supporting them financially. They could offer to mediate but risk being tarnished or appearing impotent. They are both accused of overly indulging Hamas.

Notably, the outbreak of the crisis has sidelined Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The latter had led the way to Arab normalisation with Israel, but to Arab and Muslim publics, it will look as though it has little ability to moderate Israeli policy. Saudi Arabia is likely concerned about how its flirtation with Israel will play out as a bloody war rages on. A break with Israel is highly unlikely, and both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi view Hamas as an ideological and security threat.

Iran

John Raine 

It is possible that both Hamas and Iran hope that this war will ignite widespread popular support for the Palestinian cause and for confrontation with Israel. While there have been some demonstrations of popular support, largely in countries with weak central governments or where Iranian influence is strong, it is as yet a long way from being sufficient to force regional governments to abandon or confront Israel. There may be many reasons: fatigue, disillusionment or distrust of the Islamist cause, which Hamas represents as much as they do Gaza; an unwillingness to hazard the relative gains of the recent de-escalation in the region; and, on the part of the leaders, an unwillingness to have their policies dictated by a terrorist organisation. The tinder may not be as dry as either Hamas or Tehran hoped.

While Iran and Hizbullah have with Hamas formed a virtual ‘unified front’, it has not so far proved to be any more cohesive or effective than other, historic groupings of Israel’s adversaries. Both Hizbullah and Iran have applauded Hamas the loudest, but whether they would be prepared to risk their resources and possibly their future by fighting alongside them remains to be seen. Tehran, and Hizbullah in recent years, have been careful to avoid direct and potentially costly confrontation for fear of the consequences on their domestic positions. Israel has confined itself to targeting Iranian capabilities outside the region or to precision operations inside Iran. A tricky decision for both Iran and Hizbullah will be how to respond to pleas for military intervention from a Hamas besieged and decimated by Israeli military action. If they commit to assist, they become belligerents in a war with Israel. If they decline, they hazard their credibility and that of the ‘unified front’. All support short of actual assistance may be their preferred course of action.

Lebanon and Hizbullah

Rym Momtaz and Emile Hokayem

Whether the Lebanese militant group Hizbullah will open a second front in the north of Israel has been front of mind since news of the Hamas attack broke.

Both groups have long-standing ties, and Hamas maintains a base in Lebanon. Hizbullah is more connected to Iran, but in recent years, Hamas has relied on the Lebanese group to strengthen relations with Tehran. All three actors have repeatedly stated that one of their common goals is to ‘unify the fronts’ against Israel and have reportedly established a joint operations room in Beirut. In recent weeks, leaders from Hizbullah and Hamas (as well as the smaller Islamic Jihad) have et and publicly  declared an intention to coordinate more closely. Whether Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials were present at these meetings remains unclear, but Esmail Qaani, the head of the Quds Force, has been a frequent visitor to Beirut. 

So far, Hizbullah stated that it has been in constant contact with Hamas leaders to coordinate their responses but has refrained from an all-out show of solidarity. On Sunday, the group initiated limited skirmishes, with exchanges of mortar fire in the disputed territory of the Shebaa farms. The area under attack widened on Monday but remained contained despite Hizbullah claiming three of its own were killed by Israeli shelling. It is possible that Palestinian fighters in Lebanon, with subtle but ultimately deniable Hizbullah prompting, could conduct cross-border operations. Significantly, Hizbullah can help Hamas through inaction because significant Israeli forces and capabilities will remain pinned in the north for defensive reasons.

Whether Hizbullah decides to intervene fully depends on known and unknown factors, among them the magnitude of the Israeli retaliation against Hamas and whether Israel is able to severely and durably decapitated Hamas leadership. The dire economic situation in Lebanon has affected Hizbullah's popular constituency and figures in the calculus. The determining factor will be Iran, which has cultivated Hizbullah as its ultimate instrument of punishment and deterrence, which it deploys very judiciously.

The European Union

Rym Momtaz

The European response to the attacks has been mainly symbolic, coupled with immediate practical concerns for European citizens in Israel and civil peace in European countries with significant immigrant populations.

Leaders from France to Poland condemned the Hamas attack against Israel and asserted their support for Israel. They also ordered symbolic public displays of solidarity with Israel at significant landmarks. The European Union, however, lack a cohesive strategy for the Israel–Palestine conflict, and member states are deeply divided on the conflict. On 8 October, Germany’s development minister announced  that Berlin would review its Palestinian aid payments. The next day, Hungarian EU Commissioner for neighbourhood policy Oliver Varhely unilaterally announced, without consulting member states, that Brussels would suspend all development-programme payments immediately. Following very public objections by ministers from countries including Ireland, Luxembourg and Spain, as well as members of the European Parliament, a short European Commission statement reversed this decision.

The French president and foreign minister have made public their telephone diplomacy so far, discussing the situation with their counterparts in Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. But expectations are low for what they can concretely achieve. In recent years, the eruption of Israeli-Palestinian conflicts has sidelined European diplomacy more than it has for the Americans, Egyptians, Qataris and Turks.

Beyond geopolitical and diplomatic considerations, European countries want to prevent tensions from causing a migration crisis that spills over EU borders. Some members of the Muslim-majority immigrant populations in these countries have engaged in public displays of celebration of the attack. Countries including France, Germany and the United Kingdom strengthened the law-enforcement presence near Jewish community locations such as schools and synagogues over the weekend.

Russia

Nigel Gould-Davies

The latest Middle East crisis holds implications for the diplomacy of the Russia-Ukraine war. Until now, Israel has retained strong ties with Russia despite the latter’s invasion to ‘de-Nazify’ Ukraine and remove the country’s Jewish president from office. Israel has given Ukraine only limited, non-lethal aid despite its partners’ calls to do more. The main reason for this restraint is Israel’s regional security concerns: it relies on Russian cooperation in Syria to limit the threat from pro-Iranian forces.

Meanwhile, Russia’s war in Ukraine has driven closer military ties with Iran. Hamas officials have visited Moscow at least three times since Russia invaded Ukraine. The question has always been how far such cooperation could go without causing Tel Aviv to rethink its ties with Moscow.

Hamas’s attack, reportedly with Iranian planning, shows that Israel faces a deadly threat from Russia’s allies despite its own restraint. This poses new questions about its policy towards Russia – which has not condemned the attack – and the limits of its support for Ukraine – which has. Moscow must also fear that a severe retaliation against Iran could weaken one of its few close allies.

The United States

Dana H. Allin

A half-century separates the weekend’s shocking infiltration and attack by Hamas fighters against Israeli civilians from the surprise attack by Egyptian and Syrian forces on Yom Kippur 1973. It could be a coincidence, but it seems more likely that Hamas intended the historical resonance.

The parallels regarding Israel’s crucial American relationship are also beguiling if potentially misleading. In 1973, Arab armies threatened Israel’s existence, and a massive airlift of American military supplies helped turn the tide.

The 1973 war was also the fire-and-blood prologue to immense diplomatic achievements. In the following months, Henry Kissinger’s shuttle diplomacy enabled the disengagement of armies on both fronts; in 1977, Egyptian president Anwar Sadat travelled to Jerusalem to address the Israeli Knesset; in 1978, president Jimmy Carter hosted Sadat and Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin for historic negotiations at Camp David; the following year, Israel and Egypt signed their peace agreement. Egypt, meanwhile, had moved decisively from the Soviet to the American strategic orbit.

This history highlights what seems to be the bleakly limited nature of the American options now. After the harrowing scenes of Hamas operatives massacring Israeli civilians, American rhetorical and military support will have few, if any, strings attached. Washington will support Israel in a war presumably intended to destroy Hamas for good. Several factors remain unclear: whether this is possible at an acceptable cost, the implications of a ground war and potential reoccupation of Gaza by Israeli forces, and the likelihood of correspondingly harrowing scenes of Palestinian suffering and death. All of these could, at some point, weigh on the US-Israel political relationship without significantly affecting their security relationship.

Israel’s recent, bitter political disunity will dissipate for a time; a government in Jerusalem that proceeds on a national-unity basis will be more congenial also for the Biden administration. There is no Sadat on the scene, however, and even with the best of will, it is difficult to imagine a diplomatic solution to this crisis. The idea of a US-Israeli-Saudi grand bargain must be moribund for any foreseeable future. In the least-dire scenario, diplomacy will give way to deterrence. With Israel’s security establishment looking nervously at Hizbullah missiles and the risk of a second front to its north, the US has sent a carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean. This will reassure traumatised Israelis and signal to Iran that Washington will not stand aloof in the event of a full-scale attack from the east.


The Hamas attack and Israeli military options 
 
IISS experts assess the military dimensions of the surprise assault and Israel’s response. 

 

Why did the land attacks succeed?
 
Ben Barry
 
The initial wave of attacks by Hamas fighters appears to have aimed to kill as many Israelis as possible and inflict a strategic shock on the region. They captured some Israelis and took them to Gaza, apparently to complicate Israeli counter-attacks. These detainees will potentially strengthen Hamas's hand in any future negotiations with Israel.
Both Hamas and Israel agree that several thousand rockets were fired at Israel on the morning of the attack. The sheer volume of rockets appears to have, at times, overwhelmed the Iron Dome defensive system, with rockets striking urban areas. As well as resulting damage and casualties, the rocket barrage distracted the police, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israeli government from the ground attacks, slowing their responses.
Hamas's land attack achieved strategic, operational and tactical surprise, likely achieved with high levels of operational security. It may be that it was organised entirely through ‘word of mouth’, defeating Israeli electronic intelligence. It is also possible that a proportion of Hamas fighters were notified about the operation as late as possible to thwart Israeli human intelligence.
Hamas appears to have demonstrated an innovative approach that exploited Israeli weaknesses. Hamas may have identified areas where the Israeli border defences were weakest. Aside from inserting fighters by paraglider, Hamas appear to have concentrated on selected breaching points, overwhelming Israeli border security forces, acting and moving too rapidly to be stopped by Israeli reserves.
Hamas fighters moved into Israeli farms, villages and towns. They attacked homes and killed and captured Israeli civilians. They moved on motorbikes and in hijacked vehicles. They also assaulted at least two IDF camps and took over some buildings. Some armed civilians, police and IDF soldiers initially countered them. But the Israeli forces initially were neither strong enough to contain the Hamas fighters nor able to seal off the breaches in the border defences. Hamas also had the advantage of surprise. It is possible that additional Hamas fighters continued to move into Israel.
The complex urban terrain and the potential for collateral damage and civilian casualties constrained the Israeli security forces' response and ability to cordon areas with surviving Hamas fighters and close the border. The Hamas fighters' use of civilian clothes and vehicles did the same. The IDF appear not to have used close air support by jets or attack helicopters in this battle. As the IDF rapidly mobilised, it was able to increase its forces in the border area and began evacuating civilians from communities most at risk.
The IDF now claim to have ‘full control of the area surrounding Gaza’, although it admits that there may still be some Hamas fighters hiding in the area. The IDF states it is creating an ‘iron wall’ of land and air units around Gaza, but as the war develops, Hamas may mount other attempts to infiltrate fighters into Israel, including by sea or through tunnels.
 
Rocket use by Hamas and Islamic Jihad
 
Fabian Hinz
 
Hamas and Islamic Jihad, another militant group operating in Gaza, participated in the massive rocket barrages that preceded and accompanied the armed incursions into Israel. Various sources claim that 2,500 or more rockets were fired on the first day of the war. While the Iron Dome defensive system intercepted many rockets, some struck Israeli population centres, including Tel Aviv. Iron Dome's interception rate may have remained constant compared to previous conflicts, with the successful strikes due to the high number of rockets fired. It also seems possible, however, that the high number of rockets fired and their launch frequency overwhelmed the system and degraded its interception rate.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad's known arsenals consist of unguided solid-propellant rockets with ranges between ten and 250 kilometres. In 2021, Israeli intelligence estimated that the total number of rockets available to factions in Gaza was about 30,000. While Iran and Syria have smuggled rockets to Gaza in the past, most rockets now appear to have been locally produced. Iran has significantly assisted Hamas and Islamic Jihad in setting up rocket production infrastructure in Gaza. The Revolutionary Guard declared as early as 2014 that enabling Palestinian factions to build rockets was a strategic priority. It seems very likely that local production was key to Hamas and Islamic Jihad acquiring the large stockpiles of rockets seen today.
So far, there has not been any evidence of the use of guided surface-to-surface missiles by either Hamas or Islamic Jihad; this contrasts with the heavy focus on precision guidance pursued by Iran and Hizbullah. It is possible, however, that Palestinian factions might hold stockpiles of such weapons. Islamic Jihad has publicly claimed that it possessed precision-guided missiles. Palestinian factions have also attempted to acquire Iranian anti-ship missiles. Whether they succeeded after Israel foiled early attempts remains unknown.
Historically, Lebanese Hizbullah has held back specific advanced weapon systems, revealing and employing them only at higher escalation levels. It seems likely that Palestinian factions follow this logic to a certain extent. Islamic Jihad and Hamas have alluded to unrevealed capabilities and used language clearly associated with Hizbullah's strategy.
 
UAV use by Hamas and Islamic Jihad
 
Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad have used weaponised uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the ongoing confrontations. Types of UAVs used include direct-attack munitions guided by satellite navigation systems, loitering munitions equipped with video cameras and radio links, and quadcopters capable of dropping munitions. The success rate of Palestinian direct-attack and loitering munitions remains unknown. There is more evidence for the successful use of quadcopters. Videos show quadcopter-dropped munitions destroying an Israeli Merkava main battle tank and successfully turning off remotely controlled weapons stations installed on top of sentry towers along the border with Gaza.
Hamas is known to have pursued an independent drone development programme in the past but is also likely to have received Iranian assistance in this field. The group's direct-attack munitions differ from Iranian systems, but many Islamic Jihad drones, by contrast, are clearly rebranded Iranian designs. Both groups likely use weaponised commercial quadcopters.
 
Israel's military options
 
Sir Tom Beckett
 
Israel has two obvious military-strategic options for a ground offensive in Gaza. Both include an assault on Gaza to destroy Hamas's military capability and kill or capture as many fighters as possible. Israel then could either withdraw from Gaza and reinstate a blockade or garrison the area. Israel must significantly rethink what is required from a blockade if it hopes to detect and prevent militants from launching further attacks from Gaza.
In truth, there are no good options for an Israeli ground offensive in Gaza. No matter how successful the operation proves in defeating Hamas as a military organisation, Hamas's political imperative and the population's support for the resistance will continue. Israel either reoccupies Gaza to control it or, by withdrawing after an offensive, cedes ground to people for whom the resistance is existence.
The hostages taken at the war's outset will add complexity to the ground assault. Israeli soldiers must target enemy fighters while also taking extreme care to save as many of those captured as possible (unlike Algerian forces during the large-scale 2013 hostage crisis at In Amenas).
For a ground offensive, absent specific intelligence on Hamas's preparations, it would be sensible to assume that militants will have prepared defences in Gaza, particularly near sites of military significance. Hamas will hope to be as well-prepared as Hizbullah during the 2006 Lebanon War. Thus, clearing defended locations will be casualty costly for Israel and holding them will be personnel intensive even for a short reoccupation. During the operations of the US-led Global Coalition against Daesh, the goal for most of its duration was to maintain casualty damage estimates of zero. The IDF may find this too inhibiting. As Palestinian casualty numbers grow, Western sympathy for Israel will waver. One cannot espouse the protection of non-combatants if the response to murder and hostage-taking is collateral damage.
As Israel attacks to neutralise and destroy Hamas's military command nodes, structures and materiel, it will have the initiative in terms of time, forces, geographic space and resources. Once it stops attacking and starts occupying, it will lose the initiative by becoming a garrison located in fixed sites from which it exits and re-enters to patrol and supply. The 'knowledge superiority' balance will shift from the attacker to the insurgents hiding among civilians. The analysis of counter-insurgency force densities is inconclusive. Some analysts focus on the number of counter-insurgents required for each insurgent, while others focus on the number required per thousand inhabitants. Whichever approach one adopts and whatever the military judgement applied, the forces and funds needed to garrison Gaza successfully will be significant. Brutality can reduce the numbers required for a counter-insurgency. Hafez Assad demonstrated this in 1982 at Hama, while Bashar Assad, supported by Russia, has applied indiscriminate brutality throughout the Syrian civil war. Some Israeli tactics used in the past have surprised Western supporters with their callousness, but the government cannot afford a turn towards brutality.
If the IDF attempts to mount a garrison large enough to control Gaza while continuing to protect the country from threats emanating from the West Bank, southern Lebanon and Syria, its capacity will soon be stretched thinly. It will be fighting a long and difficult war, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on 7 October, conducting offensive and counter-insurgency operations in one of three distinct threat zones while securing the other two will be personnel- and materiel-intensive. This will be hugely costly and disruptive to Israel's economy. It is tragically ironic that less than three weeks after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that he wanted to see Israel as a ‘player in the Middle East’, that it will be, but not in the way he hoped. Exacerbated by Netanyahu's government, Israeli activity in the occupied Palestinian territories may have catalysed Hamas's attack. Hamas and its sponsors have, however, by design or accidentally, ensured that any hope for achieving a just and lasting peace in the Middle East has been seriously damaged and delayed once again.
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Крокус. Грандиозный скандал который пытаются замять!
Увидеть Тимбукту и умереть. Или Диснейленд для больших мальчиков.
Увидеть Тимбукту и умереть. Или Диснейленд для больших мальчиков.
Алан Уотс "Книга о табу на знание о том, кто ты есть"
Алан Уотс "Книга о табу на знание о том, кто ты есть"
«Чем больше охраны тем более причудливыми должны быть ваши методы побега». Или побег как стиль жизни
«Чем больше охраны тем более причудливыми должны быть ваши методы побега». Или побег как стиль жизни
Спаситель мира
Спаситель мира
"Спаситель мира" в 1958 году, когда его продали на аукционе Sotheby’s стоил смешные £45.
Фотоннный отражатель
Фотоннный отражатель
Во всем мире политическая сатира - это инструмент общества, который нивелирует ошибки политических персоналий и их деструктивных действий. И кстати хорошо оплачивается! Но, не у нас!
Альтернативная история мира
Альтернативная история мира
ТОЧКА ВХОДА…Или ЭПОХА СУРКА…Или Кто Мы? Зачем Мы? Откуда Мы?
Поющий волк
Проект - поющий волк
Мы просто балуемся)
Мир в полнолуние
Мир в полнолуние...?
Парjход с которого нет возможности сойти.
"Книга о табу на знание о том, кто ты есть"
Познай себя
"Книга о табу на знание о том, кто ты есть"
Побег как стиль жизни
Люди и события
Побег как стиль жизни
WSJ узнала о планах Samsung вложить в производство чипов в Техасе $44 млрд.
Новости экономки
WSJ узнала о планах Samsung вложить в производство чипов в Техасе $44 млрд.
Создание своих танкерного и контейнерного флотов потребует двух триллионов рублей
Новости экономки
Создание своих танкерного и контейнерного флотов потребует двух триллионов рублей
Такси за четыре таблетки до продцедурной комнаты ...
Мир сошел с ума
Такси за четыре таблетки до продцедурной комнаты ...
 

Фото дня 02

 

Олимпийский огонь.

В Парижской мэрии приняли носительницу олимпийского огня

Первый помощник мэра Парижа Эммануэль Грегуа. 


Всё что связано с интеллектом )

Мышь на приеме у психиатра:
- Я влюбилась в слона.
- В слона или слониху?
- За кого вы меня принимаете?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Новая информация за последний период
 

Элита, контрэлита, антиэлита современной России


Русский особый путь… к фашизму


Новый железный поток.Или алгоритмы Путина – не бином Ньютона.Или сплошные именины сердца. Или не одним Остером единым …


Белоусов и попытка ревизии Путинизма на фоне СВО и саркомы государственной ткани


Мир в полнолуние...?


Хоть чучелом, хоть тушкой... Или не более двух сроков подряд...


Ослольвы как новые украинские Наполеоны.Или когда лев уехал на сафари


Оппенгеймер: отравленное яблоко, ядерная бомба и НКВД


Тимур и его команда. Увидит ли Шойгу небо в клеточку?


РУССКОЕ БАРСТВО – МОРАЛЬНЫЙ СИФИЛИС XXI ВЕКА.Или кто и как захватил Россию!


Вагнер. Существование компании и проблемы бойцов

 

паситель мира" в 1958 году, когда его продали на аукционе Sotheby’s стоил смешные £45.
 

Как хорошо мы плохо жили...И про ежика с дырочкой в правом боку ребенку больше петь нельзя.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 


 

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